Australian superannuation projection - super on its own, or your whole portfolio with investments outside super and a margin loan
Version 1e
Super at retirement
-
Likely range
-
Income that lasts
-
Expected balanceSuperOutside superMargin loan8 in 10 outcomesPinnedAll in today's dollars
If you stopped work now
For example redundancy, unused leave or a final payout. It's added to your savings and invested at the retirement return.
Savings if you stop today
-
Money lasts
-
Income that lasts
-
Stop work nowKeep working (your plan)Today's dollars
Investments outside super at retirement
Margin loan - paying it down vs the shares it bought
Shares bought with the loanAll shares held as securityLoan owingMargin call line (security below this)Future dollars
Where your super comes from
What if...
Change in super at retirement and in the income that lasts, today's dollars.
Contribution caps and tax this year
Year by year
How this is worked out
Monthly compounding. Contributions go in each month; returns, % fees, $ fees and insurance come out each month. One-off contributions go in at the start of the year you turn that age.
Contributions tax 15% on employer, salary-sacrifice and tax-deductible contributions. Division 293: an extra 15% on the part above $250,000 of salary plus concessional contributions. After-tax contributions are not taxed.
Super Guarantee 12%, paid on salary up to the maximum contribution base ($270,830 in 2026-27, indexed). Caps 2026-27: concessional $32,500, non-concessional $130,000 (indexed by wages in $2,500 steps). Going over a cap is flagged, not modelled as a penalty.
Government help: co-contribution (50c per $1 after-tax, up to $500; income $49,293 to $64,293 in 2026-27) and the Low Income Super Tax Offset (15% of concessional contributions up to $500 if income is $37,000 or less).
Earnings: the return you enter is after investment fees and earnings tax, as funds publish it. In retirement (account-based pension) earnings are tax-free, so a similar option often shows a slightly higher return. Balances above $3 million pay the extra Division 296 tax (15% on that share of earnings; 40% total above $10 million).
Range of outcomes: 1,000 simulations with random yearly returns around your average (lognormal, using the volatility shown). The band shows the middle 80%; "chance it lasts" counts simulations where money lasts to your plan-until age.
Retirement: you draw the income you want each year (in today's dollars); super can't be touched before age 60 (preservation age), so until then income comes from savings outside super; the Age Pension (from 67) tops it up when the assets or income test allows. Age Pension figures are September 2025 rates and thresholds held steady in today's dollars - approximate, check Services Australia. Couples: only this super balance plus "other assets" are counted; add your partner's super into other assets.
Today's dollars: every future amount is divided by (1 + discount rate) for each year ahead - the same method ASIC requires of fund calculators.
ASFA Retirement Standard (June 2025, homeowners aged 65-84): comfortable $53,289 single / $75,319 couple; modest $34,522 / $49,992.
Total portfolio mode: each investment outside super grows monthly at its own rate, plus any regular amount you add. ETF and share rates default to the last 10 years' total return from Yahoo Finance (adjusted close, so distributions are included), fetched live with built-in figures as a fallback. No personal tax is modelled outside super (dividends, capital gains, deductible loan interest). The range of outcomes moves all shares together each year (volatility: NDQ 18%, IOO 14%, SEMI 28%, other shares 16-20%, cash 0.5%); crypto stays flat.
Margin loan: interest charged monthly on what is owed, your repayment taken off each month (if repayments don't cover the interest, the loan grows). LVR = loan / value of everything held as security (the lots the loan bought plus owned lots ticked Held as loan security); a margin call comes when LVR passes the lender's maximum. At retirement anything owing is paid from those shares. In retirement, income is drawn from super and outside investments in proportion to their size; by default the outside investments then earn the same retirement return as super (untick to keep their own growth rates).
This is a model, not advice. Past returns do not guarantee future returns. Your fund's own calculator and statements are the final word.